von: Hannes Enthofer, Patrick Haas.
Discount rate is the interest rate charged to commercial banks and other depository institutions for loans received from the Federal Reserve's discount window. Country risk premium (CRP) A risk premium is the return in excess of the risk-free rate of return that an investment is expected to yield. more Market Risk.
It is evident that physical demand for gold is helping to stem the rate of price decline in gold. That serves to reinforce the level further.
As usual, time will make it clear for us. I am encouraged however to see this determined buyer continuing to surface on these selling bouts. Could it be China or India? Incidentally, February gold enters its delivery period next week so the speculative action will be focused on the April contract.
It will be interesting to see what we get in the way of gold deliveries, not that most of us believe anything that the Comex warehouses report. You could probably have contracts of gold stopped and the warehouses would report a movement of 1, ounces out.
I will send up a monthly gold chart later on today. One of the big problems that the gold bulls have is the poor technical performance of the gold shares. For right now, about the best thing I can say for the shares is that many of them are extremely oversold on the daily charts.
Gold etwas zerzaust ; http: Gold etwas zerzaust ; Zum Original-Beitrag http: Is gold a bubble? As someone who has been a close observer of bubbles for the past ten years the data does not recommend it. And what makes me even more curious about this point of view is that the very people who for the most part denied the existence of the obvious bubbles in tech, housing, risk, banking and credit even to the point of absurdity, who could not or would not see a bubble if it perched on the end of their nose, who are card carrying members of the international monied fraternity, are the most vocal in calling it a bubble with emotional arguments lacking any fundamental data.
People like to make silly and distracting arguments regarding their subjective opinion of gold, which really does not apply well given gold's long history and broad use as a store of value, much longer than anything else in recorded history. In other words, you are casting your one vote in the face of countless votes of people over the ages, so your opinion is worth what it is worth.
There are major developments on 4 fronts today: Other stories on premiums on Indian and Chinese demand for gold, on consumer sentiment and debt levels in Europe will be discussed. Jan 30 By: January 30, at 4: Gold is quickly moving into the hands of those who are unwilling to gamble on fiat currencies or bonds as a store a value.
The new owners of gold are unconcerned with its lack of yield but instead are focused on its historic ability to preserve wealth and its unquestionable value.
Given the difficulty we have valuing paper money, it becomes extremely difficult to come up with a reasoned price target for gold.
These targets may well prove to be irrelevant, however, as the quality of our lives will be more greatly impacted by the continued evolution of our money and how the general public chooses to value it, or not.
Emboldened by the recent decline, Mr. Prechter has predicted http: For those not in the know, Bob Prechter has been forecasting declining prices for Gold all throughout its decade long bull run.
Ironically, for all his blathering about "sentiment" and being "contrarian", Mr. Prechter has become a great contrary indicator for the Gold market.
But buy physical only and in your personal possession. I cannot stress this point enough. Think of it as taking profits in Gold instead of Federal Reserve Notes a. Feb 01 By: February 1, at 2: Volume was quite strong on the move. I had to do a double take myself and verify that the budget number was indeed correct because it is the largest one since WWII in terms of percentage of GDP.
All rallies are just blips in a long term bear market as sums of money this size guarantee a nearly unlimited supply of Dollars in the immediate years ahead. Who in their right mind is going to view the greenback as any sort of safe haven given these facts?
To me, this just makes a Dollar devaluation all the more probable. Imagine the interest payments alone on this debt. It will take a growth rate that is almost unprecedented to provide the tax revenue for the government to draw upon to meet its financial obligations. The frightening thing is that we are just talking about the federal government here and have not taken into account further complications that might arise due to the severe financial duress of many of the individual States of the Union.
What happens in the event of the need for a federal bailout of a bankrupt state government? Think it cannot happen? Just consider California which is already clamoring for just that!
Soros can continue his misguided trash talk of gold but I think history is going to prove him to have been completely senseless. Besides, he has always been enamored of Obama and any other leftist so he has a personal stake in seeing the left succeed in its attempt to remake the American republic into a European statist model. That statement by Mr. Smith is going to be put to the test, when it comes to the US.
Bears were initially able to prevent the longs from conquering that moving average. Any additional strength also runs a good chance of turning the downtrending 10 day moving higher up which would put the market in a more friendly technical posture.
The ten day moving average does not appear on the charts until the level and currently the HUI is near Clearly, work remains here for the bulls with the price action the remainder of the session setting the near term tone. A strong finish for today will signal that the shorts met with too much buying to overcome and had no choice but to cover. Technical indicators remain deeply oversold in the shares so without some sort of fundamental input, bears are risking a large portion of their recent profits if they get too greedy.
With the surge higher in bullion today, prudence would dictate the booking of some profits before they disappear. If the shares are going to hold, they will hold at this level. I will feel much more confident about their immediate prospects if price can climb above but you have to like the price action thus far.
The Dollar chart still looks friendly from a short term technical perspective and will remain as such until bears can take prices down below For now, the bulls still have the wind at their back although the 80 level might give them a good run for their money. Whenever you see a move higher in gold with the Dollar showing rather insignificant weakness, it is a sign that gold is moving higher in terms of a majority of other foreign currencies.
Bond traders continue to remain skeptical about a strong economic recovery. We will keep a very close eye on that market to attempt to get a decent read on the thinking of the interest rate community. Eventually supply issues will work against the bond market although at what point that will occur I am unclear. Wholesale gold dealers noted "strong physical demand" in Asia, with "weak shorts" adding to the buying pressure, forced to close their bearish positions at rising prices.
Gold investors "are [therefore] justified in their concern that quantitative easing policies Gold Stocks versus Gold Bullion By: A well-selected basket of junior gold stocks could have outperformed the BGMI by a wide margin and could potentially have provided the leveraged exposure that gold-stock investors typically seek, but the juniors tend to be a lot more risky and are therefore not appropriate for many investors.
The major gold stocks are not as cheap relative to gold bullion today as they were in October of , but in gold terms they are still close to their lows of the past 50 years. Also, in nominal currency terms they are becoming sufficiently oversold to be of interest as short- or intermediate-term trades.
Having said that, we much prefer the juniors. Gold für alle Lebenslagen ;: Higher Highs Coming In Gold! Peter Degraaf The recent peak in gold on December 2nd was interrupted by a pullback that most likely ended with a double bottom on Jan 28th. There have been 9 such pull-backs, including the one just ending. But first we draw your attention to a very bullish chart. Paper is not money, except as decreed by government. When paper money is created recklessly, as is happening all over the world today, it loses all its value against gold.
The Federal Reserve in this paper. When the bubble burst in , the solution was to print even more money in an effort to get the bubble going again. Does that seem familiar? This will presage a huge move from paper money into gold and probably into silver as well, driving precious metals prices considerably higher. Precious metals share prices should perform even better than the metal prices themselves, as they did in the s.
Feb 02 By: February 2, at 6: That gave the Euro some respite from the selling barrage of late. Additionally, traders seemed to be in a mood for risk trades given the continued slap happy rally in the equity markets. Between the above, the Dollar was pushed back away from the 80 level on the USDX giving gold traders plenty of incentive to bid the metal higher.
Once again however, as has been the recent case, even with risk trades in full force again, the bond market would not stay down but found willing buyers below the market. This behavior in the bonds has me quite intrigued.
Every time we would expect to see them falling lower as traders embrace risk and move away from the risk averse or safe haven trades, the bond market refuses to break lower. Instead they keep hanging around the recent high. Technically they look heavy to me but they just will not fall, yet. Stay tuned on this one because it is going to be one of the key pieces of information that we need to get a good read on the economy in the weeks and months ahead.
Whether the feds have their pals buying in there for them is unclear but the truth is that they do not want higher long term interest rates especially with the gargantuan sums of Treasury debt that they are conjuring up to leave for our children and their children. The other two markets I am watching closely are copper and lumber. Lumber however has moved higher in anticipation of the usual seasonal pickup in home building that comes with the advent of the spring and warmer weather.
So we have a bit of a conflict between these two bellwether markets. In other words, no consensus has yet been formed. The buyer of size down there was too much for the bears to overcome. Now the test for the bulls will be to see whether they can pick off the 50 day moving average and turn the advantage they have into a strategic victory.
Weak handed shorts have been getting run out but the stronger handed ones remain so bulls will have to prove their convictions are real. See the chart for some details. One would expect to see it much stronger especially with the broader equity markets showing such strength.
The hedge fund ratio trades are continuing to sit on this sector like a huge lead weight and until they are lifted in some quantity, the bullion will outperform the shares. The CCI Continuous Commodity Index finally stopped its three day descent having found support at its 20 day moving average. Short term technical are bearish in this index so the bulls will have to push the sector high enough to kick this index back above before we can get too excited about the prospects for the broader commodity complex.
I will keep monitoring this for you. Feb 03 By: February 3, at 2: Comex commercials covering gold shorts Submitted by cpowell on Wed, While that may ultimately be the case, a simple observation of gold and DXY price levels indicates that while the dollar has retraced losses stretching all the way back to August , gold is merely at levels first seen in November and again in December and January.
We should also note that silver is once again, at least on a relative basis, when compared to gold, looking cheap. The ratio of gold to silver prices is now back to levels last seen in August. A long silver-short gold pair trade may be an interesting option for those who, like LTCM, believe in spread compression. Feb 04 By: February 4, at 2: The bulls certainly ceded the hard fought advantage that they had been clawing away from the bears early in the week.
China and India will be pleased. Then they will probably point to Guam as a reason to buy the Dollar. It probably has not opted for Bankruptcy. Now we have to wait and see what level these buyers retreat to and where they tip their hand. For now, the order of the day is further long liquidation along with some additional fresh short selling. The psychology that is working against gold for right now is that traders are yakking about the lack of inflation and thus their reticence to chase gold higher.
With banks not lending and tightened credit standards, upward pressure on prices has not been seen in a larger way. That is the reason that the gold price is so tuned in to what the equity market is doing and why it sells off whenever the equities get clocked. The lower stock market is read by traders as a sign that the economy is not growing or expanding as quickly as the pundits would have them believe and so the upward pressure on prices across the economy fades and down goes gold.
It really is that simple. If they did, the bonds would have a handle on them by now. Keep in mind however that the bonds also have not been able to break higher either. They are trapped in a range as supply issues continue to have a deleterious effect on this market.
That is one helluva lot of Treasury debt that is coming down the road. Nothing really has changed except that gold is getting sold off from a higher level which means it will also find support at a higher level as it continues its steady climb higher.
Where that new level of support emerges is unclear, but it will, just like it has in times past. One good thing out of all this hedge fund selling is that it is going to continue to give us cheap gasoline and energy prices. That will help with home heating bills this winter and consumer budgets not to mention lowering costs for the transportation sector. Then again, lower costs are good but what they really need is more business and more revenues, not just lower inputs.
That is no way to grow a business long term. We certainly are flirting with that level as I type these comments. That would not be much help for the gold shares were that to occur. Hedge funds with their ratio spread trades are probably making money out of this short leg in the mining shares that they are holding even as they take a bit of a hit on the bullion side of things.
It has to get back above to generate the least bit of bullish enthusiasm. That might hold it should it get down that low. It is trading below the 50 week moving average however so rallies are going to be sold until it can clear that level and recapture its footing above and STAY THERE. Please see the gold chart for the most recent technical levels. The gold price has been masking the overall weakness in the precious metals sector.
If you are only watching gold then you are missing the bigger picture that has been taking place over the last several weeks or so. Below is a comparison chart of 5 components related to gold in one way or another. Precious Metals Indexes - daily comparison http: The top blue resistance rail connects the major high back in December and the most recent high in January. The bottom black dashed rail connects the most recent bottoms made and brought forward to the present.
That December low was a critical low as it is a definite line in the sand. Once broken to the downside, it reverses its role and now will act as resistance on any counter trend rally. The HUI, a proxy for the big caps, has broken below and made a feeble attempt to backtest it from underneath but has fallen short. Perfect from a technical perspective. You will notice that, relatively speaking, GLD has outperformed the rest of the PM complex as investors have shifted out of the stocks and silver into gold itself.
We believe that this has created a false sense of security if you are in gold big caps, PM juniors, or silver when you only look at the performance of gold. Study the comparison chart very carefully because if GLD breaks down from where it is right now it will be a 5 point descending triangle which is normally a bearish pattern. We would also like to discuss the GLD - 60min chart http: The red circles are the same setups used to anticipate where we could look for a top. The backtest to the dotted neckline from the underneath are typically good places to take a short position or exit longs because it is a low risk and gives you a great point of reference exit strategy.
You have a line in the sand: Once the stock or indexes start moving in the direction you want, it becomes harder to limit your risk unless you use a different kind of running sell stop. The low risk setup is always where you can find a clear cut line in the sand and this is the reason we pay much attention to the most important technical levels.
With the strong dollar in place right now the precious metals complex, and commodities in general, are facing a strong headwind going forward - at least in the near future. Pounding the Sell Button [ 1: Is a significant correction now underway or is this a short-term retreat that will soon change course?
Frankreich rauschte zwischen und insgesamt neun Mal in den Staatsbankrott. Wenn französische Monarchen ihre Schulden im Ausland nicht mehr begleichen konnten, neigten sie ausserdem dazu, einfach inländische Gläubiger zu exekutieren. So war das Problem schnell beseitigt Fey as always, they could probably learn some useful lessons from Americans these days.
For one, they need to get over the silly notion that financing their debts might require a struggle. Feb 05 By: February 5, at 4: That was the story earlier in the session. Whatever it was, it is impressive. It looks to me like it was the former but someone came in and piggybacked their buying and did it in size.
Perhaps next Monday will make it clearer. Interestingly enough, the beleaguered gold shares showed remarkable resilience today especially with the broader equity markets getting clocked once again. Initially it looked to me like the hedgies were cashing profits on those ratio spreads between bullion and the shares which might have been enough to catch the attention of the shorter-term oriented day traders who noted the friendly momentum on their 3 minute bar charts and decided to buy them.
Hard to say because all of this is coming on a Friday which always has a fair amount of pre-weekend positioning. Monday will be the key to unlocking this door. But I do like what I see in the shares especially coming in the face of continued downside selling momentum in the broader equity markets.
Nothing can be said further than echoing what Jim has been saying over and over again these last few days.
That does not stop the algorithms however and until those things are finished making all their commotion, the momentum buyers will chase the greenback higher. Please refer to my comments last weekend about the Dollar and about markets running on technical factors for further elaboration on this spectacle something which I might remind the readers that has occurred quite regularly the last decade while we have watched the gold market together.
Eventually the Dollar will hit a wall of selling as the biggest players on the planet who are fundamentalists I might add, step in and put an end to its rally. We will watch for some signs of their footprints. They will blithely ignore fundamental inputs repeatedly until suddenly, one day, almost en masse, their attention shifts back to the same it will be a technical market factor which transpires in association with that occurence , whereupon a mad rush of money exits or enters in one direction nearly simultaneously.
It will be no different this time around. Rest assured that the Chinese will be big buyers of copper and the rest of the base metals as prices descend. Their economy is not going to stop growing and growing strongly at that. They need these metals. The key to the bottom in those markets will be their efforts to secure them at more reasonable price levels.
China does not pay up for anything, and that includes gold by the way. Remember what they stated a while back when they rebuked the US monetary authorities for their reckless fiscal and monetary policies? They said that such policies ran the risk of creating asset bubbles in the commodity sector.
That was a nice way of saying that prices were too high for this stuff. Rest assured the recent plunge in prices has them watching carefully. Bonds look like they finally managed to poke their head through that stubborn overhead resistance that held them in check for the last month or so, although considering the extent of the carnage in the equities, their breach of that resistance is not particularly inspiring.
Volume is not even that impressive. Additional upside on some decent volume would be significant technically. I will try to get a weekly chart of gold up later today along with some others of interest as time permits. Weekly Charts From Trader Dan http: Feb 06 By: February 6, at If you look closely at the managed money position, you can see that the net long position actually showed an increase which corresponds to the rise in price. That was prior to Wednesday when sellers came into the market with strong selling tied to long liquidation and fresh shorts.
We will unfortunately have to wait until next week to see how much further the spec long category was whittled down. The same holds true for the Managed Money position. The small specs have bled down 19, net longs during the last few weeks. We will need to see open interest stabilize before we get a solid bottom in the gold market.
The comedown in total open interest is something we have seen repeatedly as this decade long bull market in gold has played out before us. There is nothing new here except for the fact this recent bout of long liquidation and open interest reduction is occurring from a new nominal high price and will find a floor at a HIGHER LOW price in gold than the previous long liquidation waves.
Gold ist schon gelaufen, meiner Meinung nach. Gerade der immer stärker werdende Dollar wird weiter den Preis dämpfen. Auch wenn angenommen wird, dass die Aktienmarktkorrektur noch nicht abgeschlossenen ist, sehe ich wenig Aufwärtspotential für Gold. Da sind andere Metalle wie zum Beispiel Rhodium um einiges interessanter! The precious metals complex crumbled along with the Euro, while the greenback was higher. In fact, it was such a bad day that Gold officially lost its safe-haven status, according to CNBC.
All proclaimed that Gold was no safe haven. With the resurgence of day trading and most professionals staring at a computer screen all day, most people are worried about what is going to happen in the next hour, much less the next week or month.
Everyone is now a trader, but not an investor. Who can remember the trends of the past quarter or year? Not only has Gold been an excellent hedge for the entire decade and it was in the s , it rose in value during both of the bear markets in stocks.
To those with a time horizon beyond a few nanoseconds, this chart is no surprise. Feb 08 By: February 8, at 2: Ditto for silver and for crude oil. Even pork bellies were higher today. The effect of all this was a steady flow of buy orders into gold the entirety of the session.
While it is nice to see the gains in gold, technically it has a lot of work to do to repair the severe chart damage of the last week. Once again the problem is the mining shares as the HUI still can barely manage even a bounce. The hedgies are continuing to sit on the shares with their ratio trades. You can get a pretty good feel for how the battle between the inflationists and deflationists is playing out by watching a few key markets such as copper and soybeans but a better picture still remains the Continuous Commodity Index I still do not like the CRB index because it is too heavily weighted in energies.
Long term its uptrend still remains intact. Short term the trend encourages selling into rallies. While the Dollar is moving lower today, as long as it remains above 79, the short term trend is in favor of the bulls. Money flows are what markets have become all about these days and it is those two primary markets that determine pretty much where that stuff goes. Feb 09 By: February 9, at 3: Again, just a reminder, India made its purchase of those tons of gold not too far from that level late last year.
China got caught flat-footed by their buy and will not make the same mistake again. The Central Banks of both these two nations are titans in the gold market so their footprints should not be too hard to discover, although they will attempt to camouflage their actions. It looked like some of those spread trades were coming off today.
If the HUI can hold its footing above the downtrending 10 day moving average near , that should begin getting some of the momentum traders interested in the long side. One day does not however make a trend so the jury is still out for now. Keep in mind that the Dollar has one of the largest, if not THE largest speculative net long positions on record.
That does not necessarily mean it is due to collapse but what it does mean is that if any important downside technical levels are violated, a massive wave, and I do mean massive, of long liquidation will take place. This market is so lopsidedly imbalanced on the long side that the sheer weight of those stale longs could drop the Dollar several hundred points very quickly.
Technically, the Dollar looks to be vulnerable to what I described above should it breach 79 to the downside on decent volume. That has not yet occurred. The hedge funds that have poured into the Dollar are going to be tested to see how seriously they are willing to defend their boatload of longs. If they can successfully beat back the bears, it will be a credit to their willingness to commit vast sums of money to defend a fundamentally-based train wreck.
Stay tuned on this one because it is a key market for us to watch. One would think that the sheer supply of bonds coming to the market to fund US spending orgies coupled with a surge in the broader equity markets would knock the props out from under the bond market and send them sharply lower with a corresponding move higher in long term rates.
That alone is what makes the price action there so bizarre. The Fed and its cronies do not want to see higher interest rates, no matter what kind of blather comes out of their yakking mouths. As I prepare to send these comments in bonds are finally seeing some selling coming in.
That is where the conundrum regarding the Dollar has its roots. On the other hand, a stronger Dollar hurts US export competitiveness which is not at all helpful to an economy that is flatlining nor does it make it any easier to repay all this massive debt.
That means that the bond market needs to fall to push up yields to make them more attractive which then stuffs the real estate sector. I'm convinced the US government will go bankrupt, but not tomorrow, and before they do they will print money [and] you'll get a depression with very high inflation rates," said Thai-based money manager and investment author Dr. Tim Geithner and Mr. Larry Summers, the one thing I will never do in my life is sell my gold.
Citigroup Plans "Crisis Derivatives" http: That Citi would introduce such a product is a huge sign that the bottom is not in, and another huge crisis is coming.
Feb 10 By: February 10, at 3: As that news began filtering out into the market, the equities moved up off their lows eventually making it into positive territory while the Dollar moved down off its session high.
Basically it would seem that we are still sitting around watching what the equity and Forex markets are doing to get a clue as to what we can expect gold to do from day to day. Those doubts initially were the impetus behind the selling that came back into the Euro after it leapt into the heavens yesterday. In terms of sheer size of numbers, there is no comparison. Then all the lemmings will Gadarene-like rush headlong off the cliff together congratulating themselves for their foresight as they plummet to earth.
Bonds were down fairly hard today for a change but as of yet are still holding support. The Dollar remains well above 79 and thus is safe from further long side liquidation until it breeches that level. It continues to bounce off the rising 10 day moving average as technicians buy to defend their massive longs. Not much to say about the mining shares as evidenced by the HUI which was tracking gold fairly closely today as it too moved off its worst levels of the session.
They still look like they are short term sold out to me but bulls are not yet out of the woods until we get a close above at the very least. Never a dull moment these days. Economic Warnings from an Elderly 3rd Grader Verfasst von Jim Willie CB http: Die Preisunterschiede wachsen weiter an, stark genug, um den Goldmarkt an sich unter gewaltigen Druck zu setzen.
Offiziell wurde sogar ein neuer Buchungseintrag "Cash for Delivery" eingeführt, der notwendig wurde, um die gequälten Bilanzen auszugleichen. Das erregte wenig Aufmerksamkeit. Manche nennen es unverhohlene Bestechung. Andere nennen es technischer Ausfall. Die Geschäftbedingungen haben hier ein kritisches Niveau erreicht, das zumindest hört man aus vertrauenswürdigen, Top-Informationsquellen mit Kontakten nach London und direkten Erfahrungen mit dem dortigen Marktgeschehen.
Die Märkte für Papiergold und für physisches Gold haben sich am Ende ganz praktisch voneinander getrennt, sprich: Die Anhörung sei wegen heftiger Schneefälle abgesagt worden. Die Differenz zwischen Ein- und Ausfuhren sei auf 40,2 Mrd. Ökonomen hätten nur mit einem Fehlbetrag von 36 Mrd.
Still, he said he is "relatively optimistic" about stocks going up, referring to them and precious metals as two of the best safe havens.
Februar - Goldanteil an den Währungsreserven ist rückläufig Die Beutung von Gold als Währungsreserve ist weltweit rückläufig. Zu diesem Schluss muss man bei einem genaueren Blick auf die kürzlich durch den World Gold Council veröffentlichten Daten kommen. Die Goldreserven der Zentralbanken stiegen zwar weltweit leicht an, der Goldanteil an den Währungsreserven ging im Dezember allerdings zum Teil deutlich zurück Many investors, including George Soros, who have missed the bull market in gold or the bear market in paper currencies , now believe that gold is overbought and therefore it is too late to invest.
The next chart disproves that theory totally. The chart shows gold in dollars adjusted for real inflation. Feb 11 By: February 11, at 4: The sharp move higher came even as the Euro was knocked sharply lower which is quite positive for gold as it seems to indicate that gold is generating safe haven flows out of currency fears; something we have been hoping to see for some time now. The fact that the Dollar could not sustain its gains today is very telling.
Unless the bulls can push the Dollar higher immediately, they are in real danger of losing downside support in the USDX on account of the extremely large number of stale long positions that have been built up in that market. Momentum to the upside has stalled so the bulls are going to have to impress right now to stem a counterattack by the bears.
A technical washout in the Dollar will occur with a crack of Along that same line, the mining shares finally came back to life today. The surge in the HUI today took it above the level and serves to confirm that it is indeed sold out for now having put in a double bottom near the region.
That level should hold on any subsequent moves lower if indeed these shares are set to resume their upward move. Its move higher turned its 10 day moving average higher which is also friendly and should encourage dip buying. Also, its session high cleared the 20 day moving average. If it can manage to close above that level, it would be most friendly. The next big test for the HUI will come somewhere near the vicinity of Bellwether copper, had a very strong upside day today with its price move confirming a short term bottom and a swing in momentum over to the inflation camp and away from the deflation camp.
You have to wonder if China has been active in the copper market the previous few days given the strong buying that has been present down near recent lows.
In general, commodities across the board were higher today, with the CCI, Continuous Commodity Index, now back above its ten day moving average. Bonds are weaker but still have not fallen completely apart. Today was a victory for the inflationist camp and a blow to the deflationists. Tomorrow is Friday and one never knows what a Friday will bring with all the pre-weekend book squaring especially coming in front of a holiday on Monday of next week.
But for today, the friends of gold must be pleased. Sometimes backwardation can occur when there is excessive demand at the moment such as a seasonal demands e. The market makers believe that although the future price is lower, their expectation of future delivery is in question and they will pay more to acquire gold now rather than risk not getting it in the future even for a lower price.
This is typically a bullish indicator because it implies that there will be shortages in the future. Gold backwardation can only mean that either "a There are enough people so concerned about non-delivery that they will pay a large premium to get their hands on gold right now" or "b There are no large holders of gold who have sufficient faith in the futures exchange to exploit the [backwardation].
The People's Bank of China said Friday it will raise the ratio of reserves banks must set aside by 0. Following the news, the U. See China lifts reserve ratio. What do you do? Correct answer - whatever you can, better known as market manipulation. Every country is now on its own as it tries to kill its currency first. It puts the currency in the basket or it gets the revolutionary hose again. Feb 12 By: February 12, at 2: Schweiz droht deutschen Politikern: Schweiz droht deutschen Politikern Zum Original-Beitrag http: Und die Chance, dass Gold todamoon geht, ist doch wesentlich grösser, als dass eine solche Gesetzesänderung durchkommen würde.
Feb 13 By: February 13, at 1: Please keep in mind that this data only covers price action through Tuesday of the current week. I have circled the areas on the chart that I wish to call attention to in white. Since then gold has been in retreat with open interest steadily bleeding out as positions were liquidated across the board. That position liquidation, by both longs and shorts, has resulted in the categories containing the largest traders receding to the same levels at which the last strong upleg in gold commenced.
How to explain this? They cannot hold back the rise in gold but they attempt to contain it. Once upside momentum begins to wane, the technicals turn and then the fund money begins exiting as longs are liquidating. It is into this long liquidation that the bullion banks do their short covering as they lift the shorts by buying them back.
That forces these perma bears to rapidly cover shorts at a much faster clip than they would prefer. After all, if the speculative crowd is in the process of throwing away their gold, why get in the way? Let them throw away as much as they can and the bullion banks can leisurely continue their short covering letting the market sink lower and lower as they profit all the way down. The problem that they have is the huge physical market in gold prevents them from having the luxury of sitting on their hands while the market drops lower.
They are therefore forced to buy back at a much faster clip. That is what drops the open interest down to near the same levels as the last upleg began but leaves the price at a much higher level than the initial breakout run. This has been the pattern for gold throughout the entirety of its now near decade-long bull market.
It runs higher as speculative money flows in, backs off and retreats in price as bullion bank selling eventually succeeds in pushing price lower causing this long side speculative money to begin liquidating, only to then stabilize at a higher price after allowing for this liquidation.
The result is that gold forms a new base of support at successively higher and higher levels consolidating its price gains while end users and big buyers of size become acclimated to the new, higher price. The market then eventually gathers steam inducing another wave of speculative buying which takes it on to a new, higher price once again and the cycle then repeats.
What would most people do? But then the price begins to drop. If and when it does get there, they buy it. Not many I would dare say. Yet this is precisely how the physical market in gold works and why gold finds support and stabilizes in price at successively higher price levels. Then the momentum funds move in and up it goes to another new high. In effect, the market has experienced a healthy washout and price correction and is now in the position of having a relatively low level of open interest, especially speculative hot money from the managed money crowd.
If gold can continue to hold above the recent lows and consolidate the gains made during the last few days of this week, it is setting itself up nicely for the next leg higher.
There is now a lot of room for the speculative crowd to come rushing back into gold should the technical momentum turn decidedly to the upside. A continued standoff in which further range trading is the order would be a major victory for the bulls short of an upside breakout given the tendency for seasonal weakness in gold during February. The fact that the bears could not break gold lower even with the weaker Euro this week is very significant and should not be underestimated.
Once again, the gold war wages on. Feb 15 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: February 15, at 4: Gold Market Update by Clive Maund The past week has seen the convergence of a variety of factors that together point to a powerful rally in gold soon. Thus it appears that we have been too cautious in the recent past. Feb 16 By: February 16, at 3: Copper, crude oil, soybeans and even lumber were all stronger today. Bellwether copper had a huge day as it surged into a band of strong resistance near the 40 and 50 day moving averages before sellers showed up.
That is hardly the substance that deflation is built of. Again, as always, we will be monitoring this market to gauge how sentiment is shaping up in the above-stated war.
It managed to poke its head through the downsloping trendline drawn off its all time high but just barely. Additional upside strength tomorrow will go a long way in buttressing the bullish technical case. The Dollar continues to be of concern, lob-sidedly loaded with as many stale long positions as it is, plus the fact that momentum oscillators are now showing serious bearish divergences. In my view, it is a technical train wreck just waiting to occur but so far the Dollar bulls have not yet been able to be dislodged from behind their parapets.
That will take a smashing break through the 79 level to do so and is where the bears are hoping to push the greenback. So far they have not succeeded but the chart tells the ferocity of the battle to do so. Stay tuned on this one. While the HUI is stronger today, the mining shares continue to underperform bullion as the hedge funds employ their ratio spread trades once again.
In order for the HUI to accelerate higher and attempt to catch back up to gold bullion, it will have to push through and maintain those gains for a session or preferably two.
One cannot underestimate the size of the spread trades that the hedge funds are employing among the miners. Keep in mind however that gold companies still make money by digging gold out of the ground and selling it, notwithstanding the tactics of the hedge funds. The higher the price of bullion and the more valuable the product that they produce becomes the more their revenues will increase. Even hedge funds cannot long ignore such simple facts.
I do wish to point out that the 10 day moving average of the HUI has now decidedly turned up and is quite close to generating a bullish upside crossover of the 20 day. With short term technical indicators in a bullish posture, the tendency should be for dips to be bought. Strangely enough, bonds are higher today. Even though that is dated, it confirms the suspicions of many of us that the supply problems associated with the gargantuan US fiscal deficits are first and foremost on the minds of bond traders, at least for today, and that safe haven associations or lack thereof, are taking a back seat to those concerns.
I will get some charts and comments up on the TIC data for December a bit later today. There are some alarming developments that bear commenting upon in that report. China stösst US-Staatsanleihen in Milliardenhöhe ab: China hatte im vergangenen Jahr öffentlich Sorge über die Sicherheit seiner in Dollar bewerteten Vermögenswerte geäussert.
Hoka - bisch am: And as much as gold is a speculative commodity, it does have roots in fundamental supply and demand. A good source in demystifying the fundamentals in the gold industry, The World Gold Council, has released its summary analysis of investment trends, and market and economic influences in the gold market in Q4 of India Q4 gold demand rises; stays top consumer - WGC http: Nein, leider nicht, habe etwas viel Arbeit im Moment.
Feb 17 By: February 17, at 2: Even at that, it was holding relatively well until the Euro gave up the ghost, sinking more than a point and half against the Dollar. That allowed additional selling to emerge in gold but dip buyers were lurking in the wings and took it up off its worst levels and back into the plus column as the pit session entered its last 30 minutes of trade.
Chart painters came in on the close to and attempted to push it back to unchanged. Crude oil also experienced a similar bout of buying which lifted it into positive territory at one point. One can see the flow of managed money moving into and out of these markets as the algorithms do their thing. Any weakness in the Dollar immediately generates buying in the commodity sector even though prices may be down on the day.
As the Dollar works higher, the buying dries up and the selling pressure dominates. Back and forth it goes as the struggle between the inflationists and the deflationists goes on. They pushed price back off the 20 day moving average and above the 10 day completely erasing the losses from yesterday. Even at that however, the technical momentum indicators continue to flash bearish divergences.
Only a closing push above the recent high in the Dollar near Gold will need to see additional buying strength to generate an upside crossover of the 20 day moving average by the 10 day.
The HUI is acting like it is unsure of what to do next. Its technical picture continues to improve but it will need to clear the level to generate stronger buying enthusiasm and spark increased activity on the volume front of things.
On the downside, a closing break below will damage the fledging uptrend and perhaps allow for a retest of the strong support region near Gold's bull market is solid, a new phase has begun and it's currently declining in a sharp, yet normal downward correction Pressure is likely to stay on gold and the metals in the weeks ahead, which means it's time to take advantage of weakness by adding or buying new positions. Gold's major trend remains up, indicating it's headed higher. February 17, at This is a duplicate of the IMF action in the s.
It turned out to be the most positive event as each time the IMF held an auction of their gold they facilitated entry for large investors at singular prices. Gold will rise because of IMF selling as it did in the s. I assure you that history will repeat itself on the same circumstances.
Respectfully, Jim Dear Friends, After the pit session trade had already closed for the day in New York, news came out that the IMF was planning on selling the remainder of There are several things about this that should be noted. It also coincides with another brand new all time high in the price of Gold priced in Euro terms at the London PM Fix.
Those of us who have been around the gold market long enough know full well that the timing of this announcement is therefore no coincidence but was timed to attempt to derail the returning bullish sentiment in the yellow metal. Why announce the sale publicly which is guaranteed to receive a lower price for the metal than if the IMF had just quietly sold the metal into the market. That guaranteed that Britain would receive the lowest price possible.
The spin on this gold sale is that the IMF announcing that they would sell the gold into the open market means that Central Bank demand for gold is not as vibrant as the market was led to believe. That is an interesting tall tale. The simple truth is that Central Banks do not generally buy gold and announce their intentions to do so beforehand. Neither do they tend to buy when prices are moving higher as the momentum based hedge funds do.
Time and time again we have seen that the CBs buy gold during episodes of price weakness. Any Asian Central Bank that missed buying the gold as a result is certainly not going to panic and rush into the market to obtain it.
They are waiting for lower prices where they will acquire the metal. To state therefore that Central Bank demand for gold must not be as robust as originally thought is quite shallow analysis. My view is that this announcement means nothing in the longer term scheme but was rather a cheap trick to take the market lower.
We have already seen this week how some noted elites were pooh-poohing gold and trash talking the metal all the while they were acquiring a position in it. Nothing ever changes in this gold market. It is still one of the least transparent markets on the planet and perhaps the most prone to official sector interference. Do not be disturbed by the news. It is probably going to be a one or two day wonder and then that will be it.
Gold will then go back to trading the currencies taking its cues from the action in the Dollar. Incidentally, this sale is supposedly going to be phased in over an extended period of time.
Rest assured, the IMF would love nothing better than to sell the whole tons in one lump sum to another Asian Central Bank. What few are bothering to point out is that the IMF can't sell gold "to the market. This announcement is nothing other than price massaging to support fiat and the interests of powerful parties. All previous IMF gold sales have catapulted the price of gold, curiously the opposite of market reaction immediately after this announcement.
Governments very much like the idea of buying bulk gold at a single price, and they want it for less than the current market price, hence the announcement. PNG "The last duty of a central banker is to tell the public the truth. As you know, the Discount Rate is the interest rate that the Fed charges banks who borrow from them short term on an emergency basis.
This is the shaping of perception by the Fed. It does not raise rates for the consumer or businesses, and does not affect the rates and guarantees in the many Fed and Treasury programs which are still supporting the commercial banks. One has to wonder why the Fed chose to jawbone at this time. We are discounting rumours that the nose counts among the Primary Dealers showed the risk of another 'failed' auction was rising.
Or was this mainly to provide another opportunity for the bullion banks to take the prices down ahead of their option expiration next week? Plan B stands for Bernays. A further rise would have taken down one or several trading houses, which might have taken down all the rest in their wake. Therefore at any price, at any cost, the central banks had to quell the gold price, manage it. It was very difficult to get the gold price under control but we have now succeeded.
The US Fed was very active in getting the gold price down. So was the U. MorrellIts all about managing perception. When the Fed starts backing off on quantitative easing, we will know that things are truly changing. Bernanke is all too aware of the Fed's policy error in of raises rates prematurely, which caused the second leg down to the trough of the Depression in So let the Fed wave their hands all they want, but watch the Adjusted Monetary Base. In other words, its not what they say, but rather what they do.
One wonders if Obama is also aware of Hoover's policy error in trying to balance the budget as the nation slid into the most serious part of the Great Depression. He is certainly no FDR, and the nation is unlikely to be on the road to recovery during his hapless Administration. Will he, like Greenspan, later confess that he erred for a theory, a mistaken belief? A small comfort for those they have ruined.
Man wird nie betrogen, man betrügt sich selbst. Federal Reserve Thursday raised the rate it charges banks for emergency loans by a quarter percentage point, but emphasized that the step didn't represent a broader tightening of credit. In a widely expected move, the U. The increase will be effective from Friday. Den Schlüsselzins belässt sie aber unverändert nahe Null.
Der Finanzmarkt reagiert dennoch nervös und wertet den Schritt als Zeichen für ein baldiges Ende der Zeit des billigen Geldes. Feb 18 By: February 18, at 6: The increase in the discount rate to 0.
Once again the knee jerk reaction is to sell gold and buy the dollar. Be assured this must happen. Pavlov's dogs, lol http: Global Gold Hedge book falls 4Moz in Q Meaningless pieces of paper with numbers printed on them. Unlike stocks, where fair valuations are usually based on some multiple of cash income, earnings, or dividends, gold has no inherent dividend, nor a positive carry, and thus value is confined the realm of the intangible.
Some pundits have considered the fair value for gold a price which covers the currency in circulation in a given country on a dollar for dollar basis. Others attribute a floating valuation to gold such that is convertible to any asset at a specific ratio, to account for inflation over the ages.
Yet others dismiss any valuation attempts outright as hogwash, claiming that gold has any value to it solely due to insane and deluded gold bugs manipulating the gold market ever higher, contrary to the earnest attempts of shorters such as a JP Morgan and Sempra who are merely trying to keep gold priced as fairly i. Dafür erhält er 3 Jahre lang jeweils am Dezember eine Zahlung aus dem Projekt in Höhe von Für die Berechnung des Barwerts der Zahlungsreihe wird nunmehr jeweils jede der 3 Zahlungen entsprechend abgezinst.
Als ersten Schritt trägt man die Ein- und Auszahlungen in eine Tabelle bzw. Der Investor erhält für seine am 1. Januar getätigte Investition in Höhe von Barwertfaktor, mit dem dieser Wert auf den Zeitpunkt 1. Januar umgerechnet wird ist: Multipliziert man diesen Barwertfaktor mit dem Zahlungsbetrag in Höhe von Dezember erhält, sind zum Zeitpunkt 0 dem Zeitpunkt der Entscheidung über die Investition, hier am 1.
Summiert man die 3 Barwerte auf, erhält man den gesamten Barwert in Höhe von
Berechnung des Endwertes überjährig 1. The key to the bottom in those markets will be their efforts to secure them at more reasonable price levels.
Jim Sinclair Post Edited: